As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, researchers at CoinGecko have made a fascinating discovery about Bitcoin's price movements. According to their latest study, buying Bitcoin on US holidays has historically yielded significantly higher short-term returns compared to regular trading days. This phenomenon has sparked interest among investors, who are now wondering if there's a strategic advantage to trading during these periods.
The analysis, which spanned from May 1, 2013, to May 8, 2026, revealed that US holidays recorded an average next-day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, outperforming non-holidays by a substantial margin. In fact, holidays outperformed regular days in 11 of the 14 calendar years included in the study. This trend is particularly pronounced on specific holidays, such as New Year's Day, which boasts an impressive average next-day return of 2.01% and a win rate of 84.6%.
Unpacking the Data: Holiday Performance and Market Trends
CoinGecko's findings suggest that the New Year's Day pattern may be linked to the broader January momentum effect, where investors deploy fresh capital at the start of a new year. This, combined with a shift away from December tax-loss selling, could contribute to Bitcoin's renewed positioning in January. Other holidays, such as Columbus Day and Christmas, also exhibited strong performance, with average next-day returns of 1.70% and 1.46%, respectively. However, not all holidays were created equal, with Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Independence Day recording negative average returns.
The study also explored the performance of Bitcoin on different weekdays, finding that Mondays and Wednesdays posted the highest average next-day return at 0.38%. Thursdays, on the other hand, were the only day to produce a negative average return of 0.09%. Interestingly, the data showed little meaningful difference in Bitcoin's performance between weekdays and weekends, with weekdays averaging a 0.21% positive next-day return compared to 0.22% on weekends.
While these findings may provide valuable insights for short-term traders, it's essential to note that the day of purchase has almost no impact on long-term returns. Over a one-year holding period, average annual gains across all weekdays remained within a narrow 2.4 percentage point range. As the cryptocurrency market continues to navigate complex market cycles and economic pressures, investors must remain vigilant and adaptable to stay ahead of the curve.
