As the clock ticks down on the CLARITY Act, the likelihood of its passage in 2026 appears to be dwindling. Despite the bill's successful navigation of key legislative hurdles in the Senate, a full Senate vote and final approval now seem unlikely before the year's end. According to Jaret Seiberg, managing director of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, the main challenge lies in the political sphere, where Democrats may struggle to support the bill if it includes provisions addressing presidential conflicts of interest.
Seiberg's pessimism is rooted in the complex web of political interests and controversies surrounding the bill. The recent progress in the Senate Banking Committee, although a positive step, does not necessarily signal a broad agreement across parties. Instead, it may have simply shifted the fight to the full Senate, where underlying disputes remain unresolved. The introduction of Trump-related developments, such as the legal case involving the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), has further complicated the political environment, making it harder to find consensus on legislation like the CLARITY Act.
Trump-Related Developments and Their Impact on the CLARITY Act
The $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund and the permanent bar on IRS audits for Trump, his family, and related companies have created a contentious atmosphere in Washington. Additionally, a recent New York Times investigative report alleging the influence of prediction markets and crypto-related interests on efforts aimed at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has raised eyebrows. Although the claims have not been confirmed, CFTC Chair Michael Selig's response, stating that the agency is focused on major wrongdoing and not "playing favorites," has done little to alleviate concerns. The government financial disclosures released earlier this month, which indicated roughly 3,600 stock trades were executed on Trump's behalf during the first three months of 2026, have only added to the controversy.
As the midterm election approaches and the political calendar narrows the window for additional postponements, lawmakers may choose delay over action. Seiberg's analysis suggests that the CLARITY Act's fate is increasingly uncertain, and its passage in 2026 looks less likely. The complex interplay of political interests, controversies, and Trump-related developments has created a challenging environment for the bill, making it difficult to predict its future trajectory.
