3k as the first weekend of May opens. It has done something it has not managed since the cycle peak, which is closing above the 100-day MA and breaking out of a long-term descending channel that contained the entire bearish trend. The move comes alongside strong daily RSI readings, a successful retest of the breakout level on the 4-hour chart, and an on-chain supply picture that explains precisely why the road ahead gets harder from here, and why it may be worth it anyway.
On the daily chart, BTC has been pushing toward the higher boundary of the mid-term ascending channel after reclaiming the 100-day moving average, which has descended to the $72k zone. The RSI is climbing toward 70, showing consistent bullish readings while still leaving room for follow-through, as an overbought state has not been reached yet. The immediate test remains the $80k supply zone, which has capped the price on every approach since February.
A clean daily close above this area would open the path toward the $90k level, with the 200-day moving average also in the way near the $85k mark. On the downside, the lower boundary of the current zone at $75k is now the first line of support to defend, followed by the 100-day moving average located just below this level. The 4-hour chart shows a textbook post-breakout structure.
The asset broke above the $75k level, pulled back to retest it, which is labeled explicitly on the chart, and has since pushed back toward the $79k region with the RSI also climbing above 60, showing a clear bullish shift in momentum. The structure is clean, and the retest adds conviction to the move. The upper channel boundary and the $80k psychological level are converging as the immediate ceiling.
5k, with the RSI also holding below the overbought region, keeps the bullish structure intact and targets the $82k-$84k supply zone above. In case of any pullback, the $75k area can prove critical again, as it’s the major nearby support level on this timeframe. 8% underwater tells the more important story.
The bulk of that loss-making supply was acquired between $80k and $125k during the late 2025 distribution phase, meaning BTC is now entering the price range where a large cohort of holders approaches breakeven, and the incentive to sell intensifies. Historically, crossing the 75–80% supply-in-profit threshold has marked the point where correction-driven overhead pressure meaningfully subsides, and momentum can sustain. 2% confirms that the threshold has not yet been reached, which explains why the $80k–$90k zone has acted as such a stubborn ceiling.
Each push higher converts more underwater holders into profit-takers, but it also reduces the pool of forced sellers, and if the price can clear $80k, the supply-in-profit curve could accelerate rapidly toward levels that have historically preceded the next significant leg higher.
